Handicapping MLB Player Statistical Over/Unders – NL Central

by | Sports Betting News

Kris Bryan And Josh Hader And Jack Flaherty

Opening Day is just two days away as we keep churning through some MLB player props!

With our latest MLB player statistical over/under props piece, we bring you the best bets from an NL Central that appears to be up for grabs heading in the 2021 season!

Make sure to lock in these plays prior to first pitch on Thursday!

*Odds courtesy of BetOnline

Chicago Cubs

Javier Baez – Home runs

  • Over 29 (-115)
  • Under 29 (-115)

In terms of star players looking for bounce backs, Baez is at or near the top of that list after enduring a horrendous, thankfully shortened 2020 season.

The lack of in-game video replay reportedly upset and frustrated Baez, a player that uses video to analyze at bats throughout a game. He’ll be glad to know that in-game replay is back, and I think bettors should be backing his season as a result.

After all, it’s a contract year for a player looking for a big pay day. Prior to last season, the 28-year-old Baez launched at least 29 home runs in each of his previous two seasons, belting a career-high 34 in the 2018 campaign. He did so on a career-high .264 isolated power (ISO) and while his career mark is .209, he’s been well over that figure in that time.

He plummeted to just eight homers and a .158 ISO in 59 games last season, a 22-homer pace judging by Steamer’s 646 plate-appearance projection for the outgoing star. His bat was worth a cringe-worthy 57 wRC+.

He has swing-and-miss tendencies and isn’t the best judge of the strike zone, but he boasts big-time power and when that jet stream gets going into left this summer, expect Baez to launch plenty of long balls into the chairs in left.

Prediction: Over 29 home runs (-115)

Kris Bryant – Home runs

  • Over 25.5 (-115)
  • Under 25.5 (-115)

If Baez isn’t at the top of bounce-back candidates this season, than his teammate Bryant is. Bryant’s struggled mirrored those of Baez as he hit just .206 with four homers in 34 games last season, resulting in a 77 wRC+ that is about half his 137 career mark.

He wasn’t healthy for much of the season, which was also the case in a 2018 campaign that saw him miss 60 games that season. He was healthy in between, belting 31 homers in 147 games in 2019, which is more or less what we should expect — at least — this season.

In his four career healthy seasons, Bryant has hit at least 26 homers in all of them and at least 29 in three of the four, hitting a career-high 39 in his 2016 MVP and World Series-winning campaign. He boasts a career .228 ISO and has averaged 31 homers in those four healthy campaigns.

He’s scuffled to a .582 OPS with just one homer this spring, but it’s also a contract year for Bryant, a player you should be backing on a low total here.

Prediction: Over 25.5 home runs (-115)

Willson Contreras – Home runs

  • Over 19.5 (-115)
  • Under 19.5 (-115)

Yet another star that struggled for the Cubs last season was Willson Contreras, although not to the same extent as the two mean above. In fact, he only struggled by his lofty standards as he posted a 110 wRC+, but it’s under his 116 career mark and he also hit just .243 with a .763 OPS.

That said, his number should have been better. Contreras still ranked in the league’s 88th percentile in hard-hit rate and 70th in barrel rate. To boot, his expected wOBA (xwOBA) ranked in the 73rd percentile as he deserved a .356 mark compared to his actual .336 result.

Last season, Contreras homered seven times in 225 trips to the plate, good for just 13 homers in 2021 as per Steamer’s plate-appearance projection of just 430. For what it’s worth, ZIPS has him at 498, which I think will be the more accurate number with reliable backup Victor Caratini dealt to the Padres alongside Yu Darvish this winter. The Cubs signed Austin Romine to back up Contreras this season.

It’s a pivotal year for Contreras as he’s a free agent following the 2022 season. Like Bryant and Baez before him, trade rumors are constant around Contreras as a star player with dwindling control. I believe this Cubs offense rakes this season, and considering Contreras has hit at least 21 homers in two of the last three full, 162-game seasons, there’s reason to believe he can get Over this total.

Prediction: Over 19.5 home runs (-115)

Jake Arrieta – Wins

  • Over 8 (-115)
  • Under 8 (-115)

Now 35-year-old Jake Arrieta returned to his old stomping grounds at Wrigley Field this winter as a free agent, returning to the place where he pitched at his peak, winning the 2015 NL Cy Young Award while authoring a 1.77 ERA/2.35 FIP that year.

However, this isn’t vintage Arrieta. His three-year Phillies tenure started well enough with a 3.96 ERA, but it was obvious early he was on the decline, posting a 4.64 ERA/4.89 FIP in 2019 and a 5.08 ERA/4.66 FIP last season.  That said, FanGraphs has Arrieta with a 5.20 expected ERA in 2019 and a 5.52 xERA in 2020.

Health issues have also limited his ability to get on the mound over the last two seasons. He made just 24 starts and pitched 135.2 innings in 2019 before making nine starts and pitching 44.1 innings last season. Steamer has him projected to pitch 138 frames in 2021, not an ideal number if you’re looking for the Over here.

Add the lighter workload and xERAs north of 5.00 over the last two seasons and I find it difficult to see Arrieta approaching 10 wins this season.

Prediction: Under 8 wins (-115)

Cincinnati Reds

Jesse Winker – RBI

  • Over 61. 5 (-115)
  • Under 61.5 (-115)

Winker had a huge 2020 season, smacking 12 homers with 23 RBI and a 146 wRC+ across 54 games. However, I have the Under pegged here for a few reasons.

First, the lefty-swinging Winker doesn’t start against left-handed pitching and is pinched-hit for against lefty relievers thanks to a .195 average, 617 OPS and 77 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching in his big-league career. As a result, Steamer has a 110-game and 472 plate-appearance projection for Winker in 2021.

Second, he’s not without competition if he struggles. You’ll remember the epic tear that slugger Aristides Aquino went on in the 2019 season. He homered 19 times in 59 games after homered 28 times at Triple-A in 78 games that season. He didn’t hit last year in a tiny 56 plate-appearance sample, but he has big-time power numbers throughout his minor-league career. Aquino isn’t going to take playing time away from Nick Senzel in left or the highly-paid Nicholas Castellanos in right, so left appears to be the lone spot for Aquino if the Reds want him in the lineup at their hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park while he’s also out of minor-league options, so he’s likely to stick around. He’s injured, but import outfielder Shogo Akiyama is going to figure into the playing-time mix as well.

Winker isn’t going to repeat his .289 ISO from last season and while he’s hit for power in the bigs with a career .199 ISO, he didn’t hit for hardly any power in the upper minors before debuting in 2017.

Add it up and I’m heading Under this total.

Prediction: Under 61.5 RBI (-115)

Amir Garrett – Saves

  • Over 19.5 (-115)
  • Under 19.5 (-115)

The Reds traded long-time closer Raisel Iglesias to the Angels this winter, opening up the closer’s role for an arm like Garrett in the process. However, with Lucas Sims and Sean Dootlittle also as options, manager David Bell said he won’t open the season with a designated closer.

That certainly doesn’t bode well for Garrett, who has one career save earned from last season. The stuff is nasty as Garrett appears to be in mid-season form with four scoreless innings and ten strikeouts this spring. He struck out the first nine hitters he faced across his first three innings to boot.

Garrett broke out with a 2.45 ERA last season, but also with a 3.28 xERA and 4.34 FIP that suggested he was a bit lucky with a .188 BABIP against. He did, however, suffer from poor home run luck as evidenced by his elevated 33.3% Hr/FB clip.

If he was indeed the full-time closer, this total would be higher and the over would be tempting. However, a matchup-based closer-by-committee game plan to open the season doesn’t help his chances of racking up saves, of course. Remember, while he’s struggled of late, Doolittle was once regarded as one of the best closers in baseball while Sims also broke out last season to the tune of a 2.45 ERA/2.17 FIP. Additionally, Garrett’s career 22.2% HR/FB rate isn’t ideal for a closer looking to protect small leads while Sims’ is a respectable 13.7% mark.

There’s simply too much risk in the Over at this point.

Prediction: Under 19.5 saves (-115)

Tyler Mahle – Wins

  • Over 9 (+100)
  • Under 9 (-130)

With Sonny Gray out to begin the season, Mahle will enter the season as the Reds’ No. 2 starter on the heels of a season that saw him work to a 3.59 ERA/3.88 FIP with an xERA of 3.40 to boot. He also posted an 11.33 K/9, albeit with an elevated 3.97 BB/9 as well.

He’s only entering his age-26 season coming off a breakout year, but double-digit wins is a tall task for the vast majority of MLB pitchers these days. Pitch counts and bullpen usage limit a starter’s workload while Steamer has Mahle making 26 starts and pitching just 144 innings with a 4.56 ERA/4.51 FIP.

Even after his stellar, short 2020 season, he owns a career 4.68 ERA/4.71 FIP. Again, he’s young, but that also means there’s no guarantee he builds off that small sample, and he was just two of his nine starts even with very good numbers. That’s a 6-win pace in a 26-start season.

Too many reasons lead me to another Under.

Prediction: Under 9 wins (-130)

READ NOW: Best NL East Player Statistic Over/Under Bets!

Milwaukee Brewers

Brandon Woodruff – Strikeouts

  • Over 200.5 (-115)
  • Under 200.5 (-115)

One of baseball’s elite, budding stars is quietly Brandon Woodruff, he of a 3.05 ERA/3.20 FIP with a 2.86 xERA for good measure from 13 starts and 73.2 innings in 2020.

That season came on the heels of a 3.62 ERA/3.56 FIP from the 2019 season — his first as a full-time starter for the Brew Crew.

This one is interesting depending on what innings projection you want to look at. ZIPS has him at just 139, Steamer at 185 and FanGraphs at 154. Personally, I believe Woodruff is set for a full-blown workload that will include 32 starts and something of 170-plus frames. If there’s one thing we know about this Brewers team is that the bullpen is deep and talented, offering up the idea that starter’s will be light workloads around five innings a night.

That might be the case for some, but this is a guy that take handle the workload. He’s also a guy that struck out 11.12 batters per nine innings last season. If we use that same K/9 clip, we get 210 strikeouts if he pitches 170 innings.

It doesn’t appear that we have much wiggle room for the over as his K-rate could regress and his workload might not get there. However, the opposite can also be true with more innings and an even superior K/9 rate. More than anything, I believe in the 28-year-old’s ability and I believe he exceeds the 200-K plateau here in 2021.

Prediction: Over 200.5 strikeouts (-115)

Omar Narvaez – Home runs

  • Over 10.5 (-115)
  • Under 10.5 (-115)

The first thing to note with Narvaez is that his 22-homer season from 2019 came nearly out of nowhere. I say nearly because he hit nine the prior season, but this guy should absolutely zero power throughout his minor league career. He never had more than two homers in any stop in any season throughout an eight-year minor league career with ISO figures well south of .100.

After slugging 22 juiced balls into the stands in 2019, Narvaez’s bat cratered in 2020 to just two homers and a 60 wRC+ in 40 games and 126 trips to the plate. Using Steamer’s 271 plate-appearance projection for 2021, that’s a 4.3-homer season this year.

Now, I expect the bat to bounce back, but I also don’t expect a .182 ISO from Narvaez — the number he posted in 2019. Last season’s .093 mark is a far greater reflection of his minor-league work, even if his big-league ISO sits at .132. That’s still not very good.

Perhaps more than anything is the playing time concern. There’s a capable backup in Manny Pina who has some pop himself, and while Jacob Nottingham is dealing with a thumb injury he had surgery on in December, he’s yet another option if Narvaez struggles, once healthy.

His leash on the lion’s share of starts behind the plate might not be too long given his disastrous 2020 season at the plate, and while the bat has largely been good, I don’t expect the power to turn in spades this season.

Prediction: Under 10.5 home runs (-115)

Josh Hader – Saves

  • Over 27.5 (-115)
  • Under 27.5 (-115)

As noted, much of the focus with this team is on the bullpen, especially the back end where Hader and 2020 NL Rookie of the Year Devin Williams formed perhaps the best 8th/9th inning duo in the league.

Hader’s 3.79 ERA was actually higher than expected given his 2.54 career mark, but FanGraphs tells us he deserved a 3.02 ERA last season, but even that is above his xERAs of 2.63 or better in his first three seasons in the bigs.

Walks were an issue with a 4.74 K/9 last season, but Hader still racked up 13 saves in 21 appearances. He is projected to appear in 66 games — as per Steamer — this season, pacing him out to 41 saves if we use the same ratio from last season. Heck, even if we look at his 2019 season in which he saved 37 games in 61 appearances, it makes this total even more curious.

The NL Central has four contenders, but none that appear as good as the likes of the Dodgers, Padres, Braves and Mets, all of who resided in other divisions. I’ve been harsh on save totals in these pieces, but this one is low enough where we can hit the Over with confidence, even by Hader’s track record alone.

Prediction: Over 27.5 saves (-115)

Lorenzo Cain – Home runs

  • Over 10.5 (-115)
  • Under 10.5 (-115)

After five games last season, Cain opted out of the campaign and spent some time away from baseball, while of course staying in shape ahead of the 2021 season. However, that’s just one of the reasons why I am heading Under this total.

First and foremost, Cain has never hit for much power. His career-high of 16 home runs came back in the 2015 season and he hit 15 in 2017, but he’s been at 10 and 11 over his last two seasons and owns a career .125 ISO. His ISO of .109 in 2018 and .112 in 2019 doesn’t bode well for this total after spending nearly a year away from the game.

Another angle to my decision is playing time. Cain produced those 10 and 11 home run totals while seeing between 620-623 plate appearances. However, at age 35 and another elite defensive center fielder in Jackie Bradley Jr. on board, Cain’s playing time will dip in 2021. Steamer has him projected for 545 plate appearances, and he has already dealt with a quad issue in spring training. The team’s fourth outfielder is a former starter in Avisail Garcia, so it looks like Cain is going to see some maintenance days throughout the season.

He’s going to need a power increase to get Over this total in decreased playing time, and I’m not sure the 35-year-old has double-digit home runs in him this season.

Prediction: Under 10.5 home runs (-115)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Colin Moran – Home runs

  • Over 18.5 (-115)
  • Under 18.5 (-115)

Moran’s power showed up in full last season as he launched 10 taters in just 52 games, posting a career-high .225 ISO in the process. We didn’t expect that much power from Moran heading into the season, but he did progress from a .140 ISO in his 2018 rookie season to a more palatable .152 mark in 2019. Clearly, the power was developing and he flexed plenty of muscle a season ago.

Moran didn’t post big power numbers in the minors before hitting 18 homers with a .235 ISO in 79 Triple-A games in 2017 at age 24. The power arrived late, but it’s here.

Don’t believe me? How about an 87th percentile ranking in barrel rate, 86th in hard-hit rate and 89th in average exit velocity, as per Statcast. The underlying metrics back up the power work at the plate.

Add it up and I can certainly see a 20-homer season for Moran in 2021.

Prediction: Over 18.5 home runs (-115)

Mitch Keller – Wins

  • Over 7.5 (-115)
  • Under 7.5 (-115)

Keller — now the team’s ace after Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon were dealt in the winter — has seen his first two seasons in the bigs sport some interesting numbers, albeit in very small samples.

Across 48 innings in 2019, Keller posted a 7.13 ERA, but a 3.19 FIP and 2.76 xERA that suggested he pitched quite well. In 21.2 innings of work last season, Keller posted a 2.91 ERA, but a 6.75 FIP and 6.17 xERA that suggested he was much worse than his surface ERA might have suggested. Two polar-opposite campaigns, to be sure.

He’s been unable to find the strike zone with a 4.39 BB/9 in 69.2 big-league frames, but his 7.48 BB/9 and 1.66 HR/9 from last season were disastrous.

Keller is pegged for just 136 innings in 2021 by Steamer, and on this Pirates team, wins are going to come at a premium. It’s the weakest division in the NL from a high-end standpoint, but it’s still a fairly deep group with the other four teams boasting solid rosters.

I’d be shocked if the Pirates don’t finish with the worst record in baseball, and given Keller’s up-and-down work so far in his brief MLB tenure, racking up at least eight wins is going to be a tall task.

Prediction: Under 7.5 wins (-115)

St. Louis Cardinals

**Before we start, BetOnline has “Dakota” listed at 7.5 wins for 2021. That probably means Dakota Hudson, but he’s out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Not sure what’s going on there, but might be worth a look at taking the Under there.

Jack Flaherty – Wins

  • Over 12 (-115)
  • Under 12 (-115)

Flaherty struggled in 2020 to the tune of a 4.91 ERA, and while his 4.11 FIP, 3.42 xFIP and 68.8% strand rate suggests he was unlucky, he also posted a 5.07 xERA, as per FanGraphs. Not good.

However, here’s a guy that hurled a 3.34 ERA/3.32 xERA as a 22-year-old rookie and then worked to a 2.75 ERA/3.20 xERA as a 23-year-old sophomore in 2019. His strikeouts didn’t wane in 2020, however, as he posted a 10.93 K/9 that’s actually above his 10.61 career mark.

Wins are a tricky stat as Flaherty won just 11 games (and lost eight) despite that 2.75 ERA in 2019, making 33 starts with 196.1 innings pitched in the process. Steamer has him projected for a similar workload this season, and I buy it.

The Cardinals are the NL Central favorite after acquiring superstar Nolan Arenado from the Colorado rockies while I could see this offense being productive as a result. Add in what appears to be a very talented bullpen boosted by the return of fireballer Jordan Hicks and Flaherty appears to have the tools at his disposal to rack up at least 12 wins this season.

Prediction: Over 12 wins (-115)

Yadier Molina – Home runs

  • Over 10.5  (-115)
  • Under 10.5 (-115)

Molina cranked 18 long balls in 2017 and another 20 in 2018, but fell to 10 in 2019 before hitting four across 156 plate appearances a season ago.

Molina is, of course, a future Hall of Famer, but also a player with a career .123 ISO that regressed to just .097 in his 42-game 2020 season. Even when he hit 10 homers in 2019, his ISO was just .129. At age 38, it’s difficult to see him hitting above his career ISO mark here in 2021.

Additionally, he’s going to see more days off this season. Even his 452 plate appearances from 2019 was low for him, but most projections have him around 400 with Steamer at 389. The Cardinals have a young backup in Andrew Knizner with an extensive track record of success at the plate throughout his minor-league career, so they’ll give Yadi some additional days off while continuing to groom their likely catcher of the future.

Add up the far lighter workload and general lack of power throughout his career to begin with and I don’t see more than 10 homers from Molina in 2021.

Prediction: Under 10.5 home runs (-115)

Nolan Arenado – Home runs

  • Over 32.5 (-115)
  • Under 32.5 (-115)

Arenado’s power dipped all the way to a .181 ISO in the shortened 2020 season, a far cry from his .248 career mark across eight seasons with the Rockies. However, one has to wonder how potent his bat will be in St. Louis this season as Coors Field has its way of skewing power numbers to be sure.

For instance, Arenado’s 136 home runs at Coors Field in his career are far more than the 99 he’s hit on the road. If we take those 99 road homers across 2255 road plate appearances for his career, we arrive at 28.6 homers as per Steamer’s 652 plate-appearance projections for the Gold Glove third baseman.

It’s that glove that annually makes Arenado one of the game’s WAR leaders, and while he’s hit at least 37 home runs in each of the last five full seasons, getting at least 33 given his career-long road numbers seems a little hit.

He’s capable, but I have more confidence in the Under.

Prediction: Under 32.5 home runs (-115)