March Madness Betting Breakdown: West Regional

by | Sports Betting News

The Madness is finally here! On Thursday, we will have our First Four games, and on Friday, the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament returns in full force after being canceled last season. We have never had to wait this long for the tournament, and with all of that pent-up demand, this year is going to be explosive!

Here at TheSportsGeek, we are going to bring you an in-depth breakdown and analysis of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, bringing you all of the sharp betting advice you need to win your college hoops bets and your bracket pool! Today we start that analysis by breaking down all of the action in the West Regional. Let’s get started!

First Round Matchups

In this first section, we are going to take a look at each of the eight first round matchups in the West Regional. Not only are we going to tell you which teams are going to win and advance, but we are also going to tell you which teams are going to cover the spread. Good teams win, great teams cover!

#1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-0) vs. #16 Appalachian State (17-11) or #16 Norfolk State (16-7)

The West Regional is home to the tournament’s top seed, the Gonzaga Bulldogs. The Zags are chasing history as they are trying to become the first team since Indiana in 1976 to go undefeated and win a national title. Gonzaga has already etched their names into the history books no matter what happens in Indianapolis, as they accomplished the exceedingly rare feat of being number one in the AP Poll every single week of the season. This is Mark Few’s best team ever in Spokane, and Few is hoping that he can remove his name from the top of the list of best coaches to never win a national title.

The Zags will play the winner of the play-in game between Sun Belt champion Appalachian State and MEAC tournament champions, Norfolk State. That game is a complete toss-up, and Kenpom has Norfolk State winning it by one point. We won’t be able to make a betting pick on this game as the line has yet to post, but you can be sure that the Zags won’t have much trouble taking care of business in the first round, no matter which team they face. Neither the Spartans nor the Mountaineers have a single win over the top-150 this year, and when the Zags have played teams ranked outside of the top-200, they are 7-0 with an average margin of victory of 27-points.

#2 Iowa Hawkeyes (-14) (21-8) vs. #15 Grand Canyon Antelopes (17-6)

The 2/15 matchup in the West Region is between the Iowa Hawkeyes, an at-large bid team from the Big 10, and the Grand Canyon Antelopes, the conference tournament champions from the WAC. Iowa is currently ranked 8th in the most recent AP Poll, and Kenpom has them slightly higher at 5th. The Hawkeyes are led by likely national player of the year winner Luka Garza and they finished the season as the 2nd best offense in the nation in terms of efficiency. Iowa finished strong, winning eight of their last nine games before losing to Illinois in the Big 10 tournament. Five of Iowa’s eight losses came to teams inside the top-10 nationally, and the Hawkeyes absolutely must be considered a Final Four threat.

Grand Canyon won the regular season title in the WAC and then followed it up by coasting to a tournament title, and they feel a bit under seeded at a #15 seed. The Antelope have a top-100 on their resume against Nevada, and they kept things very close with power conference teams Colorado and Arizona State as well. Grand Canyon is running bad in this matchup, as I could see them putting other teams on upset alert, but in a spot where Iowa is playing so well recently, I don’t see them having much trouble winning this game. Kenpom has Iowa winning by -14-points, and this number is sitting right there. This is a sharp line, but I am leaning towards Grand Canyon to cover, as they are the 18th best team in the nation defending the 3-pointer, and when Iowa’s wings can’t hit from the perimeter, they struggle to score efficiently.

#3 Kansas Jayhawks (-10.5) (20-8) vs. #14 Eastern Washington Eagles (16-7)

Right now, the Kansas Jayhawks are just hoping they get a chance to play, as they had to withdraw from the Big 12 tournament after having a positive Corona Virus test inside of the program. Kansas will have to pass tests for seven consecutive days in order to play in the NCAA tournament, and if they can’t meet that standard, they are going to be sent home. But assuming the rock chalk Jayhawks get to play, they are going to be a tough out, as COVID-19 was seemingly the only thing that could slow them down late in the season. Kansas had won eight of nine prior to be shut down, and I am not sure any team has more quality victories on their resume as Kansas, as the Jayhawks have a whopping nine wins over the top-50.

The Big Sky was better this year than in most years, but as is usually the case, the Eastern Washington Eagles were still the best team the league had to offer. EWU played an ambitious non-conference schedule with games against power conference teams like Washington State, Oregon, and Arizona. The Eagles didn’t win any of those games, but that experience should help them in Indianapolis. EWU has a 13-1 record in their last fourteen games and have all of the momentum that they need to pull off a huge upset. But the only realistic way that I see the Eagles advancing in this matchup is if Kansas doesn’t get to play the game. If the Jayhawks do get to play, expect them to win this one, and the -10.5 number on Kansas actually feels like a bargain.

#4 Virginia Cavaliers (-7.5) (18-6) vs. #13 Ohio Bobcats (16-7)

The Virginia Cavaliers are in the same boat as the Kansas Jayhawks right now, as they, too, got shut down at the end of the regular season. That robbed the top-seeded Cavaliers from their shot at the ACC tournament title, and now they are forced to shut down the program, hope that they can stay healthy enough to play, and find a way to not let it affect their on the court performance. Virginia was a bit shaky down the stretch, as they lost three of their last five games in the regular season and nearly lost to Syracuse in the ACC tournament before being shut down. Technically the Cavaliers are the defending national champions, and you can’t be the champ until you beat the champ, so I wouldn’t count Tony Bennet’s team out despite the tough hand they have been dealt.

Most people didn’t consider the Ohio Bobcats the best team in the MAC this season. And to be honest, they weren’t the 2nd best team either, or even the 3rd. Ohio came out of nowhere to win the MAC tournament title and snatch up the league’s auto-bid into the tournament. The Bobcats knocked off Kent State, Toledo, and Buffalo in the league tournament, all teams that finished higher in the regular season standings than they did, and Ohio absolutely earned their dancing shoes. The Bobcats are on fire, and with Virginia not able to practice and their inability to score consistently, which has led to big upsets in the past, they are going to be on upset alert in this game. I still have Virginia gutting out the win, but Ohio covers the number in what could be a thriller.

#5 Creighton Blue Jays (-7) (20-8) vs. #12 UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (22-4)

The 12/5 matchup holds a special place in all college basketball fan’s hearts, as we have seen so many memorable upsets over the years. On the surface, this seems like another prototypical 12/5 game as we have a major conference five seed, playing a small or mid-major conference twelve seed. That is usually a recipe for an upset, but a closer look at these two teams tells me a different story. Creighton is criminally underrated at a five seed, as the Blue Jays are the best team the Big East has in this tournament, with Villanova’s late-season injuries kneecapping the Wildcats. I see the Blue Jays as a team that could surprise a lot of people in this tournament.

And no disrespect to UC Santa Barbara here, but the Gauchos just aren’t good enough to be on the twelve line. Based strictly on the math, the twelve seeds should be the 48-52 ranked teams. UC Santa Barbara is currently ranked 69th on Kenpom, showing that the Gauchos are seeded too high. Not only do the Gauchos not have a single win over the top-100, they haven’t even played a team in the top-100. They are going to be overmatched and outclassed in this one, and Creighton advances and covers in a spot where both teams aren’t seeded properly.

#6 USC Trojans (22-7) vs. #11 Wichita State Shockers (16-5) or #11 Drake Bulldogs (25-4)

Now this game feels a heck of a lot more like a typical 12/5 game than the last game did, as we see a struggling power conference team in USC, playing against the winner of the play-in game between two smaller schools that are both playing really well right now. Do you smell upset? I do. USC has as much talent as any team in this tournament, as they have a lottery pick in freshman sensation Evan Mobley and a couple of other pro-level guys on this roster. But that just hasn’t translated into consistent high-level play, especially late in the season, and the Trojans are in free fall right now. USC is just 4-4 in their last eight games, and one of those wins came in overtime, and another came at the buzzer by just a single point. Andy Enfield has his Trojans limping into March and running out of steam.

The same cannot be said about either Wichita State or Drake, as both of those teams are playing some of their best basketball of the year. Both teams came up just short in their conference tournaments and had to get at-large bids to get into the tournament, but it’s hard not to expect both of these teams to compete with USC. I see Drake winning that play-in game with the Shockers, as I really do think the Bulldogs are special this year. I’ll have to play wait and see with the number on a game between Drake and USC, but I can’t imagine that I won’t be on Drake, as I see them finding a way to send USC home early.

#7 Oregon Ducks (-5.5) (20-6) vs. #10 VCU Rams (19-7)

I almost can’t believe the level of hate on this Oregon Ducks team right now. The Ducks were the champions of the PAC-12 in the regular season, and they are ranked below both USC and Colorado in the NCAA tournament. I know the PAC-12 wasn’t great this year, but the league got five tournament bids, and Oregon was their best team all season long. The fact that they are a seven seed has me shaking my head. Oregon was a little shaky mid-season when they first returned from a COVID-19 related pause, but the Ducks were smashing teams in the second half of the season as they went 11-1 before losing to Oregon State in the PAC-12 tournament. I know a lot of you out there are looking at that loss as a really bad one, but Oregon State is a lot better than people are giving them credit for, and the Beavers caught lightning in a bottle by beating UCLA, Oregon, and Colorado enroot to the league tournament title.

VCU gets a little bit unlucky in this matchup, as the Rams are good enough to beat a lot of the teams in this tournament, just not this Oregon team that is seeded two or three lines to low. The Rams were lucky to sneak into the tournament, as they had lost three of their last six games to close out the year, including losses to Davidson and George Mason, two teams that weren’t close to getting into the Big Dance. Kenpom has the Rams losing this game by just a single point, so the data tells us to back the Rams to cover, but the Ducks to win, and that is just what I will do.

#8 Oklahoma Sooners (-2) (15-10) vs. #9 Missouri Tigers (16-9)

If this game were held a month ago, it could have been a game between teams capable of making a deep run in March. But with both teams stumbling badly late in the season, this now looks like one of those games where somebody has to win, right? Oklahoma has lost five out of their last six games, and they haven’t beaten a team not named Iowa State since mid-February. The Sooners do have wins over West Virginia (twice), Texas, and Alabama, so they can beat elite teams, but they just aren’t playing well right now.

Missouri has one of the best collections of signature wins of any team in the country. At the start of February, the Tigers were sitting at 13-3, with top-100 wins over the likes of Oregon, Liberty, Wichita State, Illinois, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Alabama. But since then, the Tigers have lost six of nine, and two of those three wins came over bad teams Georgia and South Carolina. You could flip a coin in this game, as it is that close, but I am backing the Sooners. Lon Kruger is a proven winner in March, and I think he finds a way to gut this one out.

Potential Upsets After Round One

In this section, we are going to start projecting how things are going to go down after the first round. This can get sticky quickly, as we are projecting games between teams that might not even be playing, but if you want to identify those Bracket Busters early on, this is the place to do it.

#5 Creighton Blue Jays vs. #4 Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia is in a very tough spot in the second round. Not only are they not allowed to practice and prepare for these games as they are in COVID-19 protocols with a recent positive test, but they also have to potentially face a Creighton team that is better than their seed. This is a strength-on-strength matchup as Creighton is the 14th best team on offensive in terms of efficiency, and Virginia always has an elite defense. It will be interesting to see the betting line on this potential matchup, but I like Creighton to win the game and head to the Sweet 16.

#3 Kansas Jayhawks vs. #2 Iowa Hawkeyes

This game would happen in the regional semifinals, and while both teams have a lot of work to do to get there, I see this as a blockbuster potential Sweet 16 matchup. Both of these teams are playing well, and make no mistake, these are both teams that could be cutting down the nets in Indianapolis. Iowa only losses to really good teams, but Kansas is really good. The Jayhawks are great on defense, and I could see them shutting down the Hawkeye attack and winning this game. Iowa has a tendency to be one-dimensional with Luka Garza doing all of the scoring, and that is going to hurt them against a Kansas team that is deep and experienced.

#11 Drake Bulldogs vs. #6 USC Trojans

We already talked a little bit about how I feel about this matchup, and I think Drake is this year’s Cinderella and ends up playing in the second weekend of the Madness. Drake has one of the best winning percentages in the nation, and their average margin of victory of over 11-points a game tells me that while they played a bit of a soft schedule, that they were significantly better than their opposition. USC has lots of talent, but they just aren’t playing well, and with the Mobley brothers both looking ahead to next year’s NBA draft, I’m not sure they are going to be as focused as they need to beat a team like Drake. Double digit seeds making the Sweet 16? You bet!

Who Wins The West Region?

It’s not an overly sexy pick, but Gonzaga is the clear team to beat our west, and I think that they make it to the Final Four. The Zags have a very unique situation in that they have already played all of the top seeds in their region this year and easily beat each of them. Gonzaga beat Iowa, Virginia, and Kansas all by double digits, and with Virginia and Kansas potentially not even getting a chance to play, I am not sure any team has a clearer path to the 3rd weekend than Gonzaga. The price on the Zags getting through the bracket is currently -230, and while that is certainly a steep price, it is only going to drop from here as the Zags continue their march towards the history books.

Wrap Up

We are now just a couple of days away from the start of the NCAA tournaments and don’t you dare fill out your bracket without first consulting TheSportsGeek’s legion of college hoops experts. And when you do get that bracket all filled out, make sure you check out TheSportsGeek’s March Madness bracket challenge, where you can win cash, cars, and guaranteed prizes!